|
I incorporate gallop outs when handicapping maiden races. Obviously, mixed results, but I've hit some pretty good prices on maidens who galloped out well. The best part about gallop outs is they are not in the past performances.
Here's an example of my most recent major score incorporating gallop outs into handicapping a maiden race:
February 2nd Oaklawn's 1st race. It was a maiden special weight race for 3 YO fillies at 1 1/16. 5 of the 9 fillies were returning from a 12/31 race at the same distance. Looking at the past performances, one would see that the following fillies were coming from that race. The prior race they had finished 2nd,3rd,4th,6th & 7th. The favorite was coming from a different race, but the 2nd & 3rd finishers from that race were 2nd & 3rd choices.
When I watched the replay of the race, one filly stood out. She had the 11 post in the race, showed speed while wide racing 3rd getting within half a length at one point. She then faded in the stretch finishing 7th of 12, beaten 11 lengths. She finished the race the worst of the 5 fillies who were coming back. When the race passed the finish line I noticed her rallying past the wire. My notes were "Best gallop out of the returnees". Even though she had finished 7th, beaten by the other 4 horses coming back in this race, she was clearly the most impressive. After her race, one would expect her to continue to retreat, but instead she ran better past the wire than any of the other returning fillies. I bet the race early and did some other things before turning on the race a couple of minutes before it started. To my surprise, she was 24/1. I never expected those odds. The race went off, she now had a much more favorable post, #5. She was 2nd early then took over by the half mile call & never looked back. In Just My Heels won by 2.5 lengths, never in doubt. She paid $51.40 and the exacta paid $161.60 for $1.
|
