Quote:
Originally Posted by theotherside
A Early (has to have the lead to win) horse that can go 2/5ths faster to the 1/4 than the rest of the E's will have no problem having the lead and continuing on to the 1/2 mile as the other E's will have spent themselves by the 1/4 chasing him.When an E is forced to go faster than he can to the quarter then he is usually done by the half.The lead horse with the 2/5ths advantage at the 1/4 can go his normal time and will force any of the other E horses to run faster than they can and will be taken out of the race.E meaning need the lead horse of course.
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I think we are entitled to call such a horse the "Speed of the Speed" or the "Horse with the fastest fractions" - but he's not THE LONE speed. Just the quickest in that particular matchup.
When you have FIVE E-types in a race who are all Frontrunners, by definition the term "Lone Speed" does not apply.
That term should be reserved for races where ONE single horse has a sizable advantage of the rest of the field.
A lot of people seem to make the logical error of "Affirming the Consequence" - which is what one does when one says:
"This horse achieved the Lead, so by definition he was THE LONE SPEED."
He might have ended up LOOSE on the lead, without ever having been the LONE speed.
I've seen plenty of S-type horses bolt to the front and wire a field, and plenty of E8 horses crash and burn in spite of having spectacular Early Pace Figure advantages.
The most recent example would be Brickyard Ride, race 8 at Santa Anita on May 7, a proven E 8 Grade 2 winner in a four horse field with nothing but Optional Claimer winners, who promptly finished dead last as the odds-on favorite whom almost everybody in the Country expected could not fail to wire the field..
The fact that he did NOT get a clear lead or keep it does NOT detract from his status as "THE LONE SPEED" in that race.
https://www.facebook.com/Horseranker/photos/a.2305617869703046/2931753800422780/?__cft__[0]=AZXNDHXALdbN_cs6YEVUh7fj9_XLv_XmCnFnORSCC_tYiybx_ nmKtS4C_Hrw5mzWPZsFLuH52yubb_xRDz5gUrFf3QflyjiJpMR Q-jxryW-8DhN5SuyI_nsgCtlTVRwNpX94QSkMIenPoUOsr4eRcWENMnDsx ZtWG0AnIc4xSttfwA&__tn__=EH-R
And merely surviving a pace duel to get to the front does not make a horse the Lone Speed either...
at least not in the lexicon of experts like Ken Massa at HTR, who collaborated with Barry Meadow on "The Skeptical Handicapper."
He reserves the terms for races where there is only ONE horse with Q Speed Points greater than 5.
