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What an excellent question.
I think it must be stated up front that any handicapper's definition of (pre-race) Lone ES is (obviously) only as good as it actually predicts who is going to the front.
Most people just have no mechanism for measuring how well their own personal approach actually works (or doesn't).
While I love Quirin ES Pts - what a wonderful tool - the issue is that when you look at horses that actually DID go to the front, the ones that are profitable are the ones who had very low Q-ES.
IOW, it is SURPRISE ES that has the most value.
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