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How do YOU define "Lone Speed"?
I'm seeing debates about whether Medina Spirit was the "Lone Speed" in the Derby.
I think some folks have difficulty distinguishing between Terms/Concepts like Lone Speed, Pacesetter, Frontrunner, Speed of the Speed, Main Speed, Controlling Speed, Loose on the Lead, Alone on the Lead, and Fastest Early Speed Rating.
Lone Speed has been used to denote a horse - BEFORE A RACE has been run - who has a Pace Advantage over the rest of the field and is a candidate for an "Uncontested Lead" or being "Loose on the Lead."
There can only be ONE Lone Speed in a Race...by definition. If you have multiple Frontrunners, that is a different race scenario...with different Pace implications.
It should refer to a scenario where only ONE horse in the race appears to be likely to assume the lead....and who is likely to maintain that lead to the Finish and WIN the race.
Once a race has started, we can use modifiers like "Alone on the Lead" or "Loose on the Lead" to describe horses who have achieved an "Uncontested Lead" and are CLEARLY ahead of the pack - even if they were not labeled E-type runstyles.
Before the Race, if we have several horses with E-type Runstyles with comparable Pace Figures, the horse with the fastest Pace Figures is NOT "THE Lone Speed."
He might be the "Speed of the Speed" or "The Main Speed" or he may emerge as the Controlling Speed, or the Pacesetter due to the Tactics of the connections.
He might even "shake loose" and end up "Alone on the Lead."
Certainly there are races where there are ZERO E-types of Frontrunners.
Horses with Pressing Syles or even S-types with Early Pace advantages might "Take the Lead" and become the Pacesetter or the Controlling Speed.
That is a Tactical issue that emerges during a race, but they are NOT "The Lone Speed."
In my mind, Medina Spirit was NOT the "Lone Speed" in the Derby.
He certainly was never "Loose on the Lead" or even "alone" - he was the Pacesetter - but for most of the race was not ahead by more than Half a Length.
He was not the only E-type horse in the race, nor did he have the Top Early Pace ratings, but he was tied for the top E1 Call Rating. He did have a positional advantage, but there were 4 other horses in the race with faster E2 lifetime ratings, and Highly Motivated had matched his best E2 rating.
He had only had the lead at the first call ONCE IN HIS LIFE.
That does not sound like a "Lone Speed" horse to me.
John Velasquez stated that his strategy was to Assume the Lead, but if somebody wanted to go faster - to LET THEM TAKE THE LEAD.
That is NOT a descriptor of a LONE SPEED horse.
The Lone Speed horse DOMINATES a field on the Front End - or dies trying.
Medina Springs did not "dominate" the field.
His biggest threats were knocked out of contention at the break. The horse who was pressuring him the most - Soup and Sandwich - was a definite contender and had to be pulled up with a soft palate problem. Who knows what would have happened if he had been able to pressure MS past the halfway mark?
I am troubled by portrayal of Medina Springs as some tough warrior with human attributes of "courage" and "heart" who refuses to be passed.
It's easy to not be passed when you're running in 5 and 6 horse fields with a bunch of also rans.
In fact, the horse was indeed passed in the San Felipe, by Dream Shake - who then flattened out - which had nothing to do with Medina Spirit's "spirit."
I'm fine if before the Derby you labeled MS as the potential Controlling Speed , or as a contender to set the pace.
But when your connections - before the race - have decided to let somebody else have the Lead if they want it - you are NOT a "Lone Speed" type of horse.
Lone Speed type horses decide the outcome EARLY by making sure they are the Lone horse on the lead.
That is NOT Medina Springs, and I doubt he ever will be Lone Speed in a Graded Stakes race where he does not inherit the lead due to Racing Luck.
I'm very open to hearing other opinions.
Ken Massa, of HTR, in his research defines the Lone Speed angle as when there is only one horse in the race with Quirin Speed Points greater than 5. That would be consistent with restricting the Lone Speed designation to races where there is an obvious advantage held by one single horse.
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