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[classhandicapper]

Regarding data.

I track data for every distance, surface, pace scenario, number of speed horses in race and then W2W winners and overall flow at every major track in the US. I also watch loads of race like the rest of us. I can build profiles of what happens under each set of conditions under every pace scenario imaginable (projections and analysis after the fact).

What I am suggesting to you is that as you say, getting left and rushing up is normally a monumental disaster for a speed horse in sprints. We see that all the time.

However, most very good well spotted horses have the reserves to be used very hard early and keep running at 5F. They may lose, but they don’t just stop if they are the best horse. It’s the more frequently run 6F-7F races that can be a disaster that gives us that impression.

In his case, it was so extreme, it obviously had a significant impact.

The debate is about degree

IMO one of the best turf sprinters in the world would have rushed up (as he did) and weakened late, but not as soon and as badly as he did. That leads me to believe he probably wouldn’t have won even with a good start.

I hold him in very very high regard. I think he was less than 100% that day and people that are tossing the race because of the trip alone may be mistaken.

So I’m suggesting that he either doesn’t ship well or doesn’t handle that Ascot surface quite as well as US surfaces. So again, when he comes back to the US I expect him to pick up where he left off. But if he ran back at Ascot off this race and everyone was simply tossing the race because of his bad trip, I’d take a shot against him.