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Originally Posted by Spalding No!
You're thinking on this is backwards.
The distance (route v. sprint) is not important in this scenario so much as the relative pace is. Golden Pal not only didn't break sharply as he is accustomed to...he didn't break at all. The horse literally reared up and landed at a near standstill when he came out of the gate. He found himself some 5 or 6 lengths beyond the leaders and was kamikazed into a brick wall by his genius pilot when he hit full throttle to make up that deficit once he found his stride.
Expecting a sprinter to display more stamina after a compromised start is counterintuitive. One ought to be surprised he was able to reach the leading group at all precisely because it was a 5 furlong race. Regardless, nothing about his King's Stand running line is important going forward. A red line should be drawn through it when he reappears.
As for those calling the 2020 Norfolk a "weak race", the field itself was irrelevant. Golden Pal, a maiden shipping in from the US, broke the race open a furlong or so out and only The Lir Jet emerged to follow, ultimately tagging him near the finish. It was 3 or 4 lengths back to the rest of the inconsequential field. The Lir Jet had a solid 2yo campaign subsequently, narrowly missing in a Group 2 before becoming Group 1 placed while finishing in front of the much ballyhooed St. Mark's Basilica (who was ultimately champion 2yo that year and the Cartier HOY the following year). After getting buried on heavy ground as a 3yo, The Lir Jet got gelded and promptly won a Grade 2 when imported to the US. Unfortunately, he required a long layoff after that win and hasn't come back sharp thus far in 2022.
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I disagree.
I agree that getting left badly and rushing up is one of worst trips a speed horse can get, but this is one of the fastest horses in the world in terms of pure speed. Unless he hurt himself leaving the gate, getting back into the race was no shock. Tiring was no shock. IMO, throwing in the towel so quickly and fishing that badly was weak, despite that trip, for a horse that’s supposedly one of the best turf sprinters in the world.
All the data I’ve seen suggests being used hard early is LESS of a factor at 5F.
IMO a really good horse that was sharp that day would have hung around a lot better.
Personally, I would have no problem betting against him next time if he raced against a similar field at Ascot off this and his previous effort there. When he comes back to the US, I’d have no problem drawing a line through the effort.
I have no opinion on his 2yo race, but my data suggests that Euro 2yo form tends to be behind the US. They seem to develop later. It’s hard to make US/Euro comparisons at 2, but I think that’s probably why Ward has had some success over there with young horses. His horses are ahead of them.
