Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
maybe, then again he won a grade 1, ran well in another, and then was a whisker from winning a grade 2 against older.
I am probably with you on overall talent but races are races.
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I brought up the horse's record to look at his numbers, if I recall the Derby was a 6 or thereabouts initially, now it's showing up bit better down to a 5.5 which is the Grade 1 par on my numbers but that race also disintegrated so I was shading him a point for that just because. After that a huge bounce to a 12 and now he has worked his way back from it each race to a 7.75 last time, so if he is legit he could come back to let's say a 6. Running a 6 is legitimate Grade 2 but I do believe like many off the pace runners he needs things to go in his favor and on top of that needs to sustain his level of effort if / when he ever gets back to that 5-6 range. HRC can do better than a 7 so he's just showing us hit the brakes when he's supposed to go on with it, like the rider showed after the race motioning hit the brakes. Indications are that it was not all that fast of a race IMO. Now next race HRC might run a 4 or a 5 in a significantly faster race than this was, but he'll probably be runner up or show spot, that's how he tends to roll.
