Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I am assuming that we are both serious bettors...who play this game with the expectation of profit on a regular basis...am I wrong? If I am right, then...we need a handicapping method by which we could find plays on a regular basis...NO? Having a negative opinion about a horse like Songbird ain't likely to take us very far...IMO.
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The idea was to present the thought process that allows you determine which of 2 horses that both won a grade 1 race was better without looking at the clock. The same process applies to all races. It's just a lot easier to make the point with horses and classes we are all familiar with.
Whether that leads to a bet or not is usually a function of whether it agrees with the clock because most people are looking at prepackaged figures based on times. If my analysis disagrees, it can be fertile ground.
By the way, I think if those were to meet next out, Songbird would probably be the favorite off her reputation. So the race might actually offer a bet. I wouldn't bet Songbird against Stellar Wind as the favorite in a race where she was lone speed, let alone figured to be pressed. It would take some combination of lone speed, a speed favoring track, and vastly improved workouts.
