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Old 07-17-2017, 10:46 AM   #36
thaskalos
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Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Pick a stakes race and I'll express my thoughts, but I don't see the point.

As I've said, when I analyze performances after the fact (as I just did with Songbird in another thread) I'm giving you the same exact information I would use to form my opinion in the next start.

The Delaware Hcp was a very weak Grade 1 race, not because of the time, but because the horses behind Songbird were not even accomplished minor stakes horses, let alone competitive at the Grade 1 level. That she struggled with them given her relatively easy trip (after a similar struggle in her 4yo debut against better, but not superstar fillies) leads me to believe that so far she's not the same horse that ran Beholder to a nose last year, let alone gone forward at 4.

IMO, unless she steps up in training or I get some other indication she's moving forward, imo she has no shot against a horse like Stellar Wind.

At no point do the times of the races come into that analysis. It's who beat who (their accomplishments at what level) by how much with what trip.
I am assuming that we are both serious bettors...who play this game with the expectation of profit on a regular basis...am I wrong? If I am right, then...we need a handicapping method by which we could find plays on a regular basis...NO? Having a negative opinion about a horse like Songbird ain't likely to take us very far...IMO.
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