Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
One live race is all it takes...and the eventual result of this race doesn't matter in the least. ONE LIVE RACE...so we could see how this "who-beat-whom" method could reach a logical handicapping conclusion.
|
Pick a stakes race and I'll express my thoughts, but I don't see the point.
As I've said, when I analyze performances after the fact (as I just did with Songbird in another thread) I'm giving you the same exact information I would use to form my opinion in the next start.
The Delaware Hcp was a very weak Grade 1 race, not because of the time, but because the horses behind Songbird were not even accomplished minor stakes horses, let alone competitive at the Grade 1 level. That she struggled with them given her relatively easy trip (after a good but not special effort in her 4yo debut against better, but not superstar fillies) leads me to believe she's not the same horse that ran Beholder to a nose last year on a track that was fine for outside runners, let alone gone forward at 4.
IMO, unless she steps up in training or I get some other indication she's moving forward, imo she has no shot against a horse like Stellar Wind.
At no point do the times of the races come into that analysis. It's who beat who (their accomplishments at what level) by how much with what trip given how the track was playing etc... I'm not even sure which one of them has been faster so far this year. I just know Stellar Wind has been better.