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Old 03-12-2018, 11:09 PM   #257
Track Collector
Grinding at a Poker Table
 
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,902
Poker Variance Can Be Unkind

Just finished both a Thursday and Saturday poker session with an accumulated 14+ hours, and they were brutal. Net loss from both days was $577.

Here are some of the specific hands that I can remember:

(a) Went all-in with AA pre-flop. A villain calls with QQ. I am a 80-20 favorite. Q on the flop.
(b) Went all-in with AA pre-flop. A villain calls with 10 10. I am a 80-20 favorite. 10 on the flop, then another 10 on the turn. (If I was going to get beat, at least my opponent was able to win a portion of the high-hand promotion,.).
(c) Went all-in on a flop of 6 Q A rainbow with AQo. Villain calls with AKo. I am an 85-15 favorite. A king appears on the river.
(d) I have AA and go all-in preflop. My opponent calls with K 10 off. I am a 85-15 favorite. Flop comes Q 9 8.
(e) Had QQ. Raise to $20. Flop comes 6 7 3 rainbow. I go all-in, and villain has 6 7 off. To be fair, I probably win if I go all-in pre-flop.
(f,g) Another two hands where I was all-in and had at a minimum a 60+ to 40- advantage.

Pretty depressing, but Peter Clarke in his book "The Grinder's Manual" states that the only "stable" currency in poker is EV (Expected Value). And that over a sufficiently long-enough time period, real-life profits/losses will be equal to one's accumulated EV. So at my current activity rate AND if I continue to play at a +EV level, I should be able to recoup these recent losses in about 50 years.
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