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Thread: Stupid Pools
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Old 12-04-2017, 11:44 AM   #5
mountainman
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,655
Quote:
Originally Posted by rrpic6 View Post
My quick take on this:

Horses are being bet down from sometimes generous Morning Lines. (John McGary got to know the place well and was spot on 99% of the time IMO. He's greatly missed here).

Woodbine shippers are over-bet. Some like the surface, many don't.

Indiana Grand shippers are overlooked. No matter what their form shows, many wake up here at double digit odds.

I believe horses that ran at Mountaineer in their previous race has won at most 3 times at MVR in their next race.

The local tip-sheet, The Postman's Picks has benefited from decent weather and a consistent surface. His top pick has won 64 of 167 races (38%). His 2nd choice has won another 36 for a total of 59.8% for the meet so far. (Shameless plug)

RR
Hi, Ron, great to hear from you. And good job with your tip sheet.

With the Woodbine horses, much of it hinges on the barn and psychology of why they are there. Canadian outfits invading this region are sometimes tuff to gauge, since most of them are in cahoots north of the border, and send horses south as some sort of "community pool." And program trainers (hidden ownership) runs amok. Even the Canadian runners that exhibit good form at Mvr should be handled with care, since lots of them are there to be sold or unloaded.

As to the Indy horses, spot on. They are much better than players assume. But the ones I've seen win were exploiting hideous fields-low condition races-at Mvr. That horse in the last race Wed is an example.

As to the morning line, I don't even glance at it. Nor would it remotely affect any good handicapper's notion of value.

How is Dinoto doing as a steward up there?? She's part of my crew at Mnr, and I was overjoyed when she got the job.

Last edited by mountainman; 12-04-2017 at 11:47 AM.
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