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I’d take the over on 3 assuming I got a no bet on that exact number.
You have added stimulus through the tax package to an already good economy. Someone has to be the adult in the room (or pee in the punch bowl if you prefer that analogy).
I assume this economy is good and only going to get better. If that assumption is correct, the Fed will need to tighten a lot to keep a lid on inflation. Even if 4 raises this year is wrong and it’s only 3, it’s not as if they’ll stop in 2019.
The 2/10 spread has widened recently after flattening all last year. That isn’t a sign of slowing growth. They need to be on top of this. The full effects of the tax package isn’t going to hit the real economy for a good while yet.
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