Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Santa Anita is too isolated. If it goes away, we are just going to lose horses and owners. That isn't going to help increase foal crops at all.
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Consolidation is about increasing handle and cash flow per track.
If SA and the other CA tracks closed, the hope would be that a lot of the CA handle shifted to BEL, SAR, AQU, KEE, CD, OP etc.. instead. We saw that kind of shift early in the pandemic when a lot of tracks were closed temporarily.
If it did happen, that would increase the cash flow at those tracks. They would then theoretically be able to make additional investments in their infrastructure, raise purses, and theoretically even lower take (haha).
If they become more attractive entertainment and gambling destinations as a result, maybe that increases handle further. At some point, if handle and purses are high enough, owning becomes attractive enough that more people are willing to put up the cash.
It won't happen overnight. It would take time for all that stuff to occur and for it to eventually flow into breeding and ownership.
Take NY. The reason we have so many NY Breds is because NY made the economics better. People want to own them. You can do quite well with a NY Bred that can get through its conditions and then go into open company. There are also breeder's awards to incentivize breeding.
If I lived in Arkansas, I'd be pretty interested in the training and other costs of ownership there because it probably IS an attractive to place to own right now. It's certainly more attractive than CA.
There are probably all sorts of other issues and problems.
But people aren't lining up to buy horses because it's expensive and they know they are likely to lose a huge percentage of their capital. No one is going to breed what no one wants.
It's either that or I am wrong again.
