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Old 05-13-2017, 02:54 AM   #1
PaceAdvantage
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,170
To all those who say you can't win using speed & pace figures only...

I say NONSENSE.

I've been doing just that for 39 days on this website, in the Selections section, in my "Value Races & Horses" threads.

It doesn't matter the distance, doesn't matter the surface and doesn't matter the track. I've been posting picks from Belmont to Will Rogers Downs.

I haven't looked at a single replay. Haven't used a single trip note. Haven't considered a single jockey, trainer or owner. And I haven't looked at a single breeding line (although I don't bet on races where there is a first time starter or a race where there is a horse who hasn't run over dirt if it's a dirt race or hasn't run over turf if it's a turf race).

In short, I have used nothing but TimeForumUS speed and pace figures in my handicapping. And here is my record on my posted plays to date:

Quote:
ALL PLAYS (OVERLAYS ONLY) (39 Days):

124 for 844 | $1688 Wagered | $1574.70 returned | $0.93 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)

TOP PICK (OVERLAY ONLY) Running total (39 Days):

73 for 352 | $704 Wagered | $776.50 Returned | $1.10 ROI ($1.00 = Break Even)
Now granted I am showing a loss on all plays (all plays are any contender that goes off at or above my odds line), but betting only my top pick when it goes off at, or higher than my value odds line, I am ahead by 10% after 352 races and 39 days, and that's with a paltry 20% strike rate. And no, this positive ROI does NOT include Green Gratto, the 50-1 shot I posted as a top pick in another thread. The Carter did not qualify as a Value Races & Horses race. So my 10% ROI is not relying on some freaky 50-1 winner.

Could I be doing better if I was taking trip notes or considering some of the stuff I am ignoring during this experiment? Probably. But that's not the point.

The point is, don't ever let anyone ever tell you what you CAN'T DO in this game if you want to win, unless you try it out for yourself.

YES YOU CAN win by ONLY USING NUMBERS. And if I can do it, you can rest assured there are a bunch of other people ignoring all of the stuff I've been ignoring as well, and still showing a profit.

YES YOU CAN, even in 2017.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 05-13-2017 at 02:55 AM.
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