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[Secondbest]

Originally Posted by mostpost

13% of Major League players went on the disabled list in 2015. As you say, when and where those injuries happen is pretty random. There is no such thing as "Due." Because you have not been injured for two or three or ten years does not mean you are "Due" for and injury. Using that 13% figure, a player has one chance in 8 of going on the disabled list. That means he has seven chances in eight of not going on the disabled list. Personally, I will go with the seven in eight.

You also have to look at the individual. Combined, Jon Lester and John Lackey have pitched over 160 innings in 23 straight years-90% of those over 190.
And, no, they are not "Due."

Jake Arrietta has pitched over 150 innings every year he has been with the Cubs and his workout routine makes him a poor candidate for being injured.

By virtue of the way he pitches, Kyle Hendricks is unlikely to sustain any injuries connected to arm strain or overuse.

In any case, you are confusing what my analogy is about. It isn't about whether a player of a horse will be injured. It is about how we regard that possibility.

Because seven of eight players never go on the disabled list during a season, I choose to pretty much ignore the possibility.

How many of those 13% were pitchers?