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Originally Posted by Valuist
I know you (like myself) are Cubs fans. I pegged their number right at 95 1/2. The team has been very fortunate with lack of missed starts/injuries to starting pitchers the past 2 years. Dexter Fowler going to StL hurts. Yes, Schwarber is back, but his best value is in the games vs AL teams, when he can't hurt you defensively. Wade Davis could be great, but there are questions on the soundness of his arm. The Cubs also draw the AL East as an interleague play partners, and that won't help. They still win the NL Central in ridden out fashion and are a solid threat to repeat, albeit with less regular season wins.
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1. Injuries to starting pitching. That is always a possibility, but let me ask you this. If you are handicapping a horse race, do you change your pick because you fear your horse MAY get injured? No, you stay with the horse you chose and hope for the best. Many pitchers go for years without injury. And many teams have a disastrous season injurywise; last year's Mets and the '85 Cubs come immediately to mind. I just do not believe that possible injuries are something that should be taken into account. More accurately, I don't think anyone should take the under on the Cubs based on possible injuries.
2. Dexter Fowler. Yes, that will be a loss. We really won't know how big of a loss until we see how Albert Almora develops. We do know that, although Fowler was a good fielder, Almora is considerably better.
3. Kyle Schwarber. Here is what the Cubs had in left field last year.
Ben Zobrist for 19 games.
Jorge Soler for 57 games.
Matt Szczur for 48 games.
Chris Coghlan for 24 games.
That is a total of 148 games. (Some of those were late inning defensive replacements, so let's stipulate that the above four played the majority of the game in left field 140 times.
I compared the stats of the 2016 Cubs left field by committee with the total 2015 stats of Kyle Schwarber. It is by no means a perfect comparison, but it gives us an idea.
In 140 games in 2016 the left field by committee scored 44 Runs.
In 69 games in 2016 KS scored 52 Runs
In 140 games in 2016 the LFC had 90 hits
in 69 games in 2015 KS had 57 hits.
2016 LFC had 60 RBI
2015 KS had 43 RBI.
KS had 16 Home Runs, 3 more than the LFC (in half as many games.
Comparative slash lines in the respective years.
Zobrist 272/386/446/831.
Soler 238/333/436/769
Szczur 258/312/400/712
Coghlan 252/391/388/779
Schwarber 246/355/487/842
Clearly Schwarber is a huge upgrade offensively over those four.
Defensively? Up to the time he was injured, KS had played in 47 Major League games in left field. He will improve and it's not like those guys are world beaters defensively.
So, if I were one who played those over/unders, I would definitely play the over. And if the number were ten wins higher, I would still play the over for the Cubs. That is how good I think this team will be.
