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Can you fade Fierceness?
Fair to draw a line though the sloppy & sealed Champagne. But hard to forgive the Derby favorite for the Holy Bull. How valid was his excuse?
He won the Florida Derby going away, geared down, earning the field's best Beyer by 9. But he only needed a bit of work to break from the 8th post and lead a modest pace.
The BC Juvenile shows he doesn't need the lead. But it was another clear trip, pressing a modest pace from second (at 16-1, behind a 19-1).
How good of a trip does Fierceness need in the Derby, and what's the likelihood he gets it?
Surely more than one will send, and other rivals in the early running will take him on. Half the field might strive for an unmolested trip in the top flight. Half of them won't get that.
Sierra Leone has not run as fast, and risks traffic trouble closing. But he has navigated more traffic successfully, and can step up in speed like many others. I like him for that, but maybe he vies for favoritism accordingly.
You have to expect more adversity for Fierceness here. Perhaps his inability to overcome it is overblown. But his speed will get bet.
His accomplishments outweigh his disappointments in five races. The risk of dismissing him seems higher than the risk of his short price.
The post draw is a factor of course. But how far can you fade him?
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