Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian Meyers
OK, I feel like I have to do this every couple of months now. I guess there are a few that don’t remember or never read my replies because the same stuff keeps coming up again and again re CAW teams.
1. CAW teams are no better than their handicapping algorithms. I’ve read nonsense on this board as well as many others than they have an advantage because they can win even if they lose. Yeah, as long as their percentage loss is less than their rebate rate. Guess what, that’s true for all rebate players. If you’re not playing with a rebate (other than guys in a handful of states than have onerous source market fees), that’s on you. I can name a bunch of reputable ADWs that offer rebates including the one I started, BetPTC. I know a number of non-CAW players that make money because they lose at a rate lower than the rebates they receive.
2. There is no secret tote that CAW teams have access to that show ‘hidden’ will-pays. There’s not enough bandwidth available throughout the tote system to provide this even if someone wanted to. Remember, they need information on every combo bet on every guest site as well. Even if that COULD be made available it would be virtually useless because liquidity is so low at most tracks and such a large percentage of handle comes in in the final flash that information would be useless. Without giving away the secret sauce CAW teams PROJECT what the final dividend will be based upon historical data, current money in the pool, ML odds, exacta odds, etc. The best teams have the best dividend projection models. Accurate dividend projections are very, very hard to make.
3. CAW teams sink millions of dollars into developing their models and will labor for YEARS spending money collecting and analyzing data before they make even one bet. I’m not going to call out anyone specifically but there are guys on this board and others like it (including Twitter) that bitch if they have to pay for PPs and you believe that you’re going to be on a level playing field with guys that spend $50,000+ a year on back data? Last year alone I made $75,000 of data purchases on behalf of U.S. & International CAW clients.
4. I’m not trying to sound harsh; the guys that make up CAW teams are a lot smarter than you are. They’re a lot smarter than I am too and I’m a well-educated guy. These guys are rocket scientists, literally. One guy I know on a start-up team I’m working with has a dual PHD in Nuclear Physics and Aeronautical Engineering. Don’t you think that is some kind of advantage when you’re working with numerical data? Dave Schwartz is a brilliant guy, smarter than I am and has worked with teams in the past. I know he can attest to how hard this is.
5. If anyone believes that they are capable of the same level of performance and have the money to try this but lack an access point into the pools, contact me privately. Seriously, if you’re real I can get you the wagering resources and rebates you need. That’s what I do these days.
6. Finally, no, I don’t have a CAW model myself. I’ve played around with them before but I have never been able to develop a profitable one. It’s not an easy thing to do.
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Awesome, informative post. Thanks for taking the time and effort to make it. I speculate as much, if not more, than the next guy on this subject as all my info is second hand and/or empty handed. I then try to extrapolate and understand what's going on that I can't see clearly first hand. You've cleared up a great deal for me. To the point that I see there are niches for players like myself, and actually, about 10 years ago, by total accident and coincidence, fell into one. I'm no competition for these guys in any way, but they have left opportunity out there, no matter how good of handicappers/value bettors they may become.
