As explanation to my request: While I have long studied the significance of speed (a phrase borrowed from the great William Quirin), to the point of sub-classifying early-lead types and profiling Mnr using various parameters to define running styles, I have never sought to confirm the logical assumption that the probability of an early leader winning improves at a rate disproportionate to incremental reductions in field size.
Smaller fields on average result in fewer speed-duels and less pressure on early leaders. We all take that as gospel. And I have assumed that such frequently seen and PREDICTED scenarios tend to condemn out-footed horses to chase early, often in uncomfortable contrast to their natural running styles.
Impact values of first call leaders, when categorized by field size (and formulated from a sufficient sample size), should confirm these commonly held perceptions.
Roi's of those first-call leaders, as respective to field size, would put the findings in perspective.
Last edited by mountainman; 09-24-2021 at 01:15 AM.
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