Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerocraft67
I'll post my thoughts now, before catching up on the thread and the public handicappers.
Looks like a chalky one. My preferred tiers:
 , 
 ,  , 
 |
I need to read the pace discussion here again, but I've caught up with the public sharps I follow.
Looks like
has to go, but can't contend with
, who may be willing to rate. The favorite
can rate or even go to the front if it's easy. Will
push them at all in a Hail Mary bid?
All that, and
may more forward, and maybe even drift down in price.
The
is looking like a "must use" wise guy horse, if only underneath, tracking fifth or so.
If we get some pace, the
's stock rises.
Backing off
as a clever idea. He may be the "only alternative" and take too much money, and just doesn't look good enough.
Hard to knock the top two, but for their short prices.
If
doesn't "get loose" on the lead, which seems more likely than not, it doesn't have much pace advantage, even though it as a good fig last. I could see it place or show by not dominating on the front—even
has a better late pace rating. I'll fade him a little.
Our man C.J. (who's on
) points out that Epicenter's close in the Derby was a bit of an illusion with horses backing up to him. Which doesn't mean
can't win this as expected. Just a likely underlay odds on (Craig valued him at 2-1).
Now my stack looks more like this
,
,
,
Maybe the
&
aren't impossible (Mike Beer actually said that about
), and hats off to anyone that can make a case for them. But they don't look to inherit any pace help, since their best chances are to send, vs. way superior horses with speed.
I'm not playing
+
exactas, and not sure I have the audacity to box only
+
+
. Someone has to hit the trifecta other than
&
, which means crushing underlays with both of them in that pool—which suggests overlays elsewhere.
,
/
+
+
exacta could work, maybe add one or two of the shots on top. Or some trifectas with only one of the top two. Something like
,
,
/
,
,
,
/
,
,
