Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
Epicenter may not be the next coming of Secretariat but you have to analyze the competition. There are no stand out horses he is up against. Early Voting blew a huge lead against a horse that isn't as good as Epicenter. Secret Oath ran a hard race in the Oaks, drifting in badly while being whipped left handed. There is your bounce. Ask yourself this, if Epicenter was in the Oaks and she wasn't, do you think he would have been in an all out drive? NO! It would have been a walk in the park. She is the one most likely to throw in a clunker. She isn't that good, the Arkansas Derby proved that when she lost ground to a sub par horse. Betting a horse with only three starts and no stakes competition is almost always a bad bet. Creative Minister will be the wise guy horse and an underlay. Horses generally decline in their speed figures when stepping way up in class.
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They are all looking at a $1.6 million purse. Heck even a 4th is a big payday. Epicenter imo stands alone in this group. I agree with your Secret Oath comments. Many people are on her for obvious reasons. Girl, Lukas, the Oaks win etc but she has never faced the likes of Epi, Simp and EV. I had her all day in the Oaks because she fit great in that race and at good odds. She imo does not fit here and odds will be too low. She may not bounce and she may run her best race ever. The question is, will that be good enough? I say nope.
Epicenter should be stalking and then let loose around the turn with Rosario pounding him to what I can see as a 3-5 length win. I know Asmussen wouldn't be coming to Baltimore if he wasn't 100% confident in Epi's chances at retribution. I don't see any of these horses beating him.
My own amateur kooky analysis (assuming all horses present well in the post parade):
Simplification----belongs. Tough horse always tries. Decent derby rally. 1st or 2nd
Creative Minister----doesn't really belong here. Not fast enough and not enough experience. Maybe 4th?
Fenwick- LOL
Secret Oath- belongs. Brilliant filly, but most likely not good enough here. 2nd or 3rd
Early Voting- belongs. Speed, grit. But can he go the distance if hooked early? Almost wire to wire on a massively favorable speed bias track. Only beat Skippy, who was off the pace that day, by less than 4 lengths at 17-1. Win or nothing is my guess.
Happy Jack- belongs. Quality competition past races. Can get a piece late. 3rd or 4th
Armagnac- faced quality horses past races BUT won't have Lasix and wasn't able to beat Happy Jack in the past. My only question is why did they bring him here? Baffert ego situation? Do they see or know something we don't? 4th maybe.
Skippylongstocking- the name aside, belongs. May clunk up for a piece. Maybe 4th or if lucky, 3rd.
So what are my bets? I can write something here but I will no doubt change my mind 1,000 times in the next 28 hours!
