Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Most of the data I’ve seen suggests sharp horses coming back quickly have a statistical advantage. Most likely, since they are coming back quickly that means they came out of the race without any issues and their form is less likely to have changed much.
I think the bigger risk is a series of tough races with a lot of shipping without a freshening. Then horses tend to wear down eventually and may go off form at the very time you may want a peak for the Breeder’s Cup races.
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Yea. And they aren't going to run in the Preakness if he's not all-systems-go. He's too valuable and legitimate to rush into a race.
Closest to the pace of the contenders, first run, held well, held off a legitimate horse for place, looked good doing it, ran the biggest TFUS of the Kentucky Derby...
I have more confidence that Epicenter is a 'complete' racehorse that can answer different challenges now, then I did before the Derby.
Early Voting can try to pull off a big wire-to-wire effort, but
Epicenter looks like he'll run 'his' race regardless.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zico20
Can someone explain to me why they are considering running Happy Jack? He was dead last in the Derby down the backstretch and only passed horses that turned to a crawl. If Zandon doesn't run I suppose he could run up for fourth with a move forward. Maybe!
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Happy Jack can do. Can do... the horse can do...
He can run. He has never run well in a race yet.
I think he won on debut, and his MSW win was a total DREAM trip. Did very little running and the race came to him. In the Cali stakes he did very little running. There were times that they really hard-urged him from the gate, to no avail. He also wasn't changing leads. I guess a 5th and two 3rds in short fields earned him more Derby points than he deserved.
I'll check for any recent works, but his two works prior to the Derby were much improved. He changed leads and looked better. His 1m work at Keeneland looked better than anything he'd shown in races.
I used him on some Kentucky Derby tickets. Was very fractious in the gate and didn't break. The gate was a stressful thing, but the race and experience probably helped along any improvement that was in him. He basically 'saved ground' (again) once he had the gate trouble and lack of a break, and was behind a wall of horses and not abused. He was a stride or two slow on the lead change but did change and looked OK trotting home.
I think he'll beat Simplification in the Preakness, and he'll probably be one of the longest shots. Very unlikely to win, but other than Epicenter, Secret Oath, and Early Voting, there isn't much pizza left.
not sure if you wanted a serious response but
take it fwiw
