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Old 05-10-2022, 11:23 PM   #66
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
IF I GOT THIS RIGHT, ALL LOOKS GOOD
IN ALL 682 RACES, FAV WON 40% (THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $0.87)
IN 72 SYSTEM PLAY RACES, FAVORITE WON 68%(THE $1 flat bet RETURN WAS $1.10)
USING SOMEWHAT THE STATICAL REFERENCES FROM FABRICAND’S BOOK “HORSE SENSE”
THE MEAN = 40% X 72 = 30
SQRT(72 X .68 X .32) =3.96
AT THE 1% LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE, THE SYSTEM WINS MUST BE >=(3.96 X 2.5) +30 = 40
THE SYSTEM PLAY WINS WERE 72 X .68 = 49.
Playing only 11% of the races back in the day would not be too practical, but today, given proper programing, you could run this system 24/7
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