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Old 09-16-2014, 10:43 PM   #37
Jeff P
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dirty moose
...Think about the people that have nothing to do with the actual racing. The person who sells the programs, the food, the poor guy that's gonna clean the bathroom, the security, the cashiers. You guys wanna put all these people out of work so you can make a few more bucks on your exacta, makes you no better than the horsemen.
On the contrary, the few track management teams and horsemen's groups who have figured out how to give the horseplayer a better paying exacta are discovering that we horseplayers will line up to put money in their pools.

Kentucky Downs (posted about above) would be one example.

Another example would be the recently concluded 2014 meets at Del Mar and Saratoga.

The Blood-Horse reported that 2014 all sources handle at Saratoga was down 2.6% vs. the prior year:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...andle-declines

The Blood-Horse also reported that 2014 average daily handle at Del Mar was down 7.3% vs. the prior year:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...odHorse.com%29

Not written about by any reporters (yet) are some of the differences in handle for specific pools comparing Del Mar vs. Saratoga.

I compliled the following handle per race numbers using the charts:

Code:
                   DMR        SAR  
---------------------------------
WPS            363,890    429,874
EXOTICS        730,775    938,665
TOT HANDLE   1,094,665  1,368,539
EXA           195,0755    345,629
DD              52,427    109,674
FIELD SIZE        8.80       7.88
A few bullet points:

WPS --
Both tracks have approximate level takeout rates. Del Mar WPS takeout is 15.43%. Saratoga WPS takeout is 16.00% but uses more favorable breakage.

DMR handled 0.8465 as much as SAR. (If you are going to compare DMR vs. SAR use that as your benchmark.)


TOTAL HANDLE --
DMR handled 0.7999 as much as SAR.


2 HORSE BETS (EXA and DD) --

EXA --
DMR exacta takeout is 22.68%
SAR exacta takeout is 18.50%

If you look at EXA pool per race, DMR handled just 0.5644 as much as SAR. That number is telling when you compare it to the benchmark (0.8465) and consider the differential in takeout rates.


DD --
DMR rake was 20.00%. We wrote about the "logic" the CHRB used to raise the double takeout in southern California from 18.00% at Santa Anita to 20.00% at Del Mar on the HANA Blog here and here .

SAR DD rake was 18.50%.

If you look at DD pool per race, DMR handled just 0.478 as much as SAR. That number is appalling if you compare it to the benchmark. (0.8465)


Field Size --
Much of this flies in the face of the industry's field size narrative. Many in the industry will tell reporters that recent handle woes are "all" field size related. (Churchill Downs and Arlington earlier this year both come to mind. Neither track would admit on the record that takeout rates impact handle.)

DMR field size was 8.80 runners per race.

SAR field size was 7.88 runners per race.

Yet with almost a full horse per race smaller field size: Saratoga had the better meet this summer - being down only 2.6% vs. the prior year compared to Del Mar being down 7.3% vs. the prior year.

Takeout on two horse bets wasn't the only reason, but speaking as a horseplayer who bets a considerable amount of money, I made an extra effort this past summer to give Saratoga more of my business than Del Mar.

I did that BECAUSE of the differential in takeout.

The way I see it, Saratoga was the major track offering horseplayers the better deal value-wise in the EXA and DD pools this past summer.

The trend-line in the handle numbers between the two tracks suggests I might not be the only horseplayer who saw it that this way.




-jp

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Last edited by Jeff P; 09-16-2014 at 10:55 PM.
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