Quote:
Originally Posted by Track Phantom
Why would late money be smarter (or more accurate) than other money.
My issue is more to do with disproportionate betting in the final minute and nothing to do with favorite or any price on the board.
A horse who is sitting at 12-1 on the board for all of the wagering that goes off at 6-1 at post when a ton of money comes through on him in the final click is concerning to me. Happens way, way, way too much for what would be logical to an average IQ person. The amount of time this late "rush" of money is accurate defies what is normal in betting historically.
Saying it another way, if favorites win 35% but I told you that the horse getting the most proportionate money in the final click is winning 45% of the time, would that concern you? (By proportionate I mean the overall percentage of money they have wagered on them in the final click).
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The advent of computer aided betting is the reason disproportionate betting should occur. What is surprising to me is I have books that are 20 years old and the same 35% figure is cited. I would have expected that figure to rise significantly.
Late money is a significant factor. A lot of typical bettors wait watching their horse fluctuate between 7/2 and 3-1 before deciding to place their bet. Don't ask me why, it's always been that way as far as I can tell.
Given the advent of computer aided betting (serious analysis of worth vs risk returns) I would venture to guess that maybe there is no significant advantage to the computer aided late bettors vs historical anaylsis against 'sharps'.
A payout analysis would probably be a better indicator of if there was an edge being taken advantage of. Are winning favorites paying out MORE or LESS now? Does that offer value to people playing against favorites?
