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BUMP
I've had a couple emails about the the shorter version I switched to, so I thought quick review might be due.
1. I use speed last race, ACL, and PP columns
2. I give poits to the top 4 in each as follows: 10, 6, 4, 2 If there is a tie, say for SR last race, I give each 8 pts instead og 10, 6
3. I want 4-5 contenders, so I try to use the top 3 in each column, and if that is not 5, I use 4th and/or 5th in PP
4. Bestpossible score is 30.
Calculating odds:
There are a total of 66 points available. Since this method use only the last line, I want some protection, so will assume I will include the winner only 80% of the time. 66 is 80% of about 84, so I use 84 to get odds.
Best horse has a 30 rating, so..... 30/84 = .357% = 1.7-1 odds
If you use no cushiom, actual probality, you assume winner is included 100% od the time, 30/66 = .454% = 1.2 -1 odds
If you think your wiiner is only likely to be included 75% of the time, use 90,
so that 30/90 -= 2.0 -1 odds.
So depending on your confidence level,
100% - 66 30/66 = .454, 1/.454 = 2.2 - 1= 1.2-1
90% - 75 30/75 = .400, 1/.400 = 2.5 - 1 = 1.5-1
80% - 84 30/84 = .357, 1/.357 = 2.8 - 1 = 1.8-1
76% - 90 30/90 = .333, 1/.333 = 3.0 - 1 = 2.0-1
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 04-14-2023 at 04:10 PM.
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