Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
just yesterday i watched a race at Will Rodgers. the horse left the gate at 1/9, about $2500 came off the horse, the horse finished the race at 3/5 and crossed the wire first. i said to myself they got these after the bell players, but wait a second, the horse came down and got placed second. i am scratching my head because i really didn't see anything that would bring the horse down, and these guys must have seen it.
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This same pattern (not the horse coming down part but the money coming off a 1/9 or 1/5 shot so that it ends up at 3/5 or 4/5 part) has been repeated hundreds of times over the past 4 or 5 years - mostly at tracks with smallish pools. Maybe it's been going on at tracks with large pools too - but harder to spot when the pools are bigger.
I suspect the player or group who made the initial bets that put the horse at 1/9 going to the gate were employing a strategy that goes something like this:
Bet so much on the horse that it becomes patently unattractive to players like you and I from a risk vs. reward standpoint. The idea being to persuade players like you and I to not bet their horse - and maybe take a small stab on one of the other horses.
Cancel (a big part) of their bets right before the race off or shortly after if betting where a cancel delay is offered.
If I can make an educated guess: They have a pretty good idea what final pool size will be after they cancel. They have a pretty good idea what final odds will be after they cancel. They have a pretty good idea what their edge will be given final pool size and final odds after they cancel.
If the type of strategy described above enables them to accomplish most of that:
From a Kelly perspective, I suspect they have a pretty good idea how much better off they are in terms of maximizing their edge vs. using a "normal betting strategy" where players like you and I are more likely to bet money on their horse.
All of that said, I think the incident you described yesterday Tues 03-20-2018 at WRD involved the #4 horse in R6... which according to the chart took place inside the eighth pole.
If they are now canceling after seeing an incident that occurs in mid stretch likely to make their number come down:
THAT'S a huge can of worms -- one I haven't seen before!
-jp
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