Quote:
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
First, there has never been a sports line set at -120/-105.
Second, no one (bookmaker) ever gets 50/50 action on sides. One of the proofs of this is that they change the above money lines precisely because they don't. All that said, they don't mind not getting 50/50, because in aggregate they are taking what they believe to long term winning "risks" with the margin of error being their 10% vig, which any bettor will tell you is not a nominal thing in terms of success.
Not only is the vig higher, but the fact that you can't lock prices and know what your ROI is (if you make models or handicap however), or know your expected return or beat people to numbers, all mean that horse racing can't sniff sports. Horses loses in all of those aspects. The lone exception is horizontal wagers; the only problem there being that you have pretty much no idea what others are doing. You do have some idea of what other bettors are doing in moving pool prices in horses or lines in games.
Most, if not all of what I say above, agrees with Thaskalos' sentiments.
|
Could some of these be considered advantages for those who are good at modeling? That is, if I can predict the expected payout of a runner or a combination better than my competitors, am I in a better situation than if we both know the payout ahead of time?
