Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
More generally, i think there's a gigantic amount of delusional thinking associated with sports betting. Yes, takeouts are still lower than horse racing. But you guys really have no idea all the changes that are going on to increase sports books' margins, and also have no idea the variance, amount of information necessary(daily fantasy sports are an indicator of this), and difficulty of long term profit.
Sports betting is a huge money pit for a lot of otherwise sensible players.
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Many of us go through life in a state of delusion, but that's irrelevant for those who maintain accurate records. When it comes to sports betting, I would venture to say that it's tougher than it was 30 years ago, in part due to the amount of information that's more readily available. The lines are sharper, and line movements not nearly as telling (IMHO) as they once were. In spite of that, I can count the number of winning horseplayers I've ever met on one hand, while even today I continue to run into new acquaintances, often younger, who crush the man in sports.
What you seem to be hinting at though is something else, and it's unclear to me what "changes" are taking place. Are the sports books sharing pools now? Do they have the inside scoop on drugged up or injured players and fixed games, offering sucker juicy lines on the wrong side? Perhaps a shady timekeeper with a slow hand providing an edge to the over? I can see one edge of analyzing the wagers made, and fading the losers. But that's easy enough to do from the player's side.
How does not using numerous accounts/books reduce any additional risk if we're just talking juice?
As for variance, some of us are well aware of the statistics involved. I also know that I'd never have a sample size large enough to bet on a game for another 400 or 500 years of results in the database, so I've decided to gamble on my gut instinct. I can live with being "lucky" with a positive balance, and still sleep at night.
And out of curiosity, what game are these "sensible" players displaying their sensibility? Poker? The stock market? Bonds?
