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Sat - 1.8.22 - Oaklawn Park Race 2 (pre-scratches)
VIP Who - 32 - 5/2
Slick Silver - 19 - 5/1
Pepper Pike - 11 - 9/1
Zitman - 13 - 8/1
Jack's Advantage - 12 - 8/1
I'm drinking coffee still - hopefully I got this right - there was a double split between two horses and to get 23 I just used (10/5/5/2/1) in a simlar fashion to mimic the sequence in a reasonable way. I guess I could have used 1.5 & 1.5. Regardless, I'm at least in the ballpark and playing the game.
One of the flaws I can see is when there's a true/vulnerable favorite like "VIP-Who" here..... which should garner a larger portion of the odds line. It looks to be a true favorite and 5/2 is about perfect for a value line... the one knock I can see is that he hasn't raced since Oct 23... but has 5 works under the belt. To be generous let's say it's vulnerable... even though that's a bit questionable (possibly a true favorite) ... anyway, I think a large favorite like this can drive and over estimate the odds needed on the other 4 contenders... like Slick Silver I would just toss - (maybe the idea is that I have time to cap and toss - which is a check mark for this system is more time to actually cap) Pepper Pike's line seems ok and in-line with reality, as does zitman's but Jack's advantage I think i would need upward of $25/1.
Overall I like the idea and it's likely a very good guide to keep you out of trouble and to easily recognize huge faults in the public's line. That said look at horse #8 Gambler in this race which is outside the scope of the system. Shipper from Remmington with 2 bullet works that's 33% Win and 50% itm at the distance and is 15 / 1 on the morning line. This is the type of horse that I would want $25/1 on and I would use a half of a betting unit to win or even win/place. (only bc VIP is coming off of a layoff)
So I'm going to place a half of a betting unit on #8 and Play a small exacta 8 over 10 and then a tri 8,10/8,10/1,3,5,7 ( threw the 3 in and at least argue horse for course)
Overall the idea is great and appreciate sharing it... will post of I come up with any reasonable design changes that may work for me. I'll test it for fun on races I typically woudn't bet.
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