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[LottaKash]

Thanks Markgoldie for "sharing" that most valuable way of looking at "fresh-horses"....

I too am always alert to a fresh-horse, in fact it has become one of my "mainstays" in handicapping-harness races....I believe if you really want a shot at beating this game in the long run, one must understand "fresh horses" better than the competition....

It's funny and so co-incidental, that you use the name "Z" pattern, as somewhere along the way, I started using that same "name" for this type of scenario....I think I got that idea from some handicapper that I had read at sometime, somewhere along this way.....

Most likely the "early-horse", in this "Z-type" scenario that fades dismally as the race progresses is the most prodigious producer of Monster-Mutels, but I also use other variations as well...

I also like it, if a horse had shown some really good first-two fractions, and then gets shuffled and stays even or closes a bit late in the race....I think that this strengthens this "angle", as it shows that the horse was very "well-meant" in that early speed tightening race, and more importantly shows that the horse can finish his mile as well...I like that added benefit, as it helps me keep confidence in his ability to run better the next week...Tho the price will come down more so in this type of scene...

Also, in that speed tightening mile, I will like a horse, that has run an even type of race with a hint of early speed and somne solid and almost all the same fractions in "all" of last mile splits....ie;...28 28:1 28:3 28:4....I like to see this "pace-pattern" with a "fresh" horse....This what I refer to as a "compressed pace-pattern", and as Cary Fotias had pointed out in his book "Blinkers Off", horses with a compressed "pace and final time" often will "explode" in his next outing or two.....

Or, I will like a horse such as Markgoldie's (BPQ) type horses with at least one solid (swift for the class) early split, and better yet, back to back BPQ type early splits, and then followed with a gradual, or even abrupt deceleration from that point on....then, if after losing many lengths (looking dismal at that point) after those first two powerful splits, doesn't appear to lose any more lengths/postitions from that point on, going to the wire....ie;.his splits.....27:3...28....29:4....30:2.....running line....7 2o 2 5-41/2 7-71/2 8-81/2

There's more to this Z stuff and fresh horses, just can't think of them at this point....

Good luck "all", in implementing MG's great strategy..... In time, your game will only get better, thinking this way....

best,