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[markgoldie]

Thought I might share a couple of handicapping tips for our forum members. This tip involves what I dubbed many years ago the "Z" pattern. (I realize others have used the term "Z" pattern to mean other situations, but this is my use of the phrase).

A Z pattern comes about when a horse is newly returning from an extended layoff, such that the horse has been "let down," rather than having remained in training for the layoff period. Since we can never be 100% sure that this has been the case, we will use an arbitrary number of three months as a minimum layoff (between the horse's first activity which will usually be a qualifier and his last previous race).

It is nearly impossible to train a horse into complete, maximum race tightness. So the idea here is to wait until the horse has regained his maximum tightness through racing before wagering on him. But the WAY this maximum tightness is achieved is very important. We are looking for a gradual, safe tightening, followed by a punctuation to complete the process.

Therefore, we create the following rules:

(1) The horse must have been inactive for at least three months.

(2) In the horse's qualifier, he must have been raced FROM BEHIND, and he must have shown either POSITIVE or NEUTRAL movement through the stretch, OR a faster last quarter than third quarter (this last stipulation is important because if a much better animal is in the qualifier who posts a very rapid last quarter, it is possible for our target horse to have actually lost lengths in the stretch, despite a decent acceleration.

(3) In the horse's first mutuel start back, he again must have been raced from behind with forward progress in the late stages.

(4) We PREFER, but do not demand, a second mutuel start with the same closing pattern of the first.

(5) This is the key tightener race. The horse must leave for the front and spend at least a quarter mile cutting the pace. The longer on the front end, the better. For value purposes, we also prefer that the horse gets tired late in the race and fades out of the money. However, he must have been beaten by a normal, "representative" distance. I won't get overly specific here because there are too many variables which may come into play regarding the "representative" distance of defeat. For example, track size, track speed bias on the given night, and severity of all pace fractions will factor into what we may consider reasonable or representative. What we're really trying to avoid is a situation where our horse has suddenly developed a bleeding or breathing problem which may cause a bad performance in the upcoming race. So while we expect that this front-end trip will cause fatigue, it should not cause complete staggering late in the mile.

(6) The horse is ready to bet as a "Z" pattern horse in his next start, the theory being that the horse was prepared for his front-end attempt well- that is, he had a sufficient "foundation" such that the front-end attempt should not cause a "gutting," "corking," or "bounce". However, it should yield a topper to the race-tightening process. Interestingly, this next race has a very good chance to be the animal's best effort in the current race cycle, but such things are determined by a variety of factors, such as age, physical infirmities, and the training schedule that led to up to this effort.

(7) This is not a qualifying rule, but a preference: It is better if in the target race (the one where we are betting) the prospects for a cover trip are good. That is, we prefer our target Z-pattern horse to come from behind, rather than cut the mile. Naturally, if we are to come from behind, we would also prefer a race in which there was sufficient pace contention to make closing a good option AND a nightly track condition that at least allowed closers an even chance to succeed.

So that's it. Be on the lookout for these types of horses because they often light up the tote board. All comments or questions are welcome.