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You should always ask yourself, a) what is the horse capable of? and b) where is the horse at now? c) do you see a forward move coming in its upcoming race?
Question A may mean going much further back than 2-3 races. What if a horse is supposed to run a 6 furlong sprint on a dry track and his last 3 races were turf, slop and synthetic? Obviously those races are limited in what information they can provide moving forward on a dry, real dirt track.
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