Finally, there is this...
This is the summary table. I ran it against these key factors but usually run it against about 200 factors.
There are 4 metrics:
$Net Ratio
IV Ratio (Impact Value)
PIV Ratio (Pool Impact Value)
PubCh Ratio
Remember that these ratios are always rank1 divided by RH to produce a ratio except for PubCh which is the other way around. That is, it is the average public choice rank of RH divided by average public choice rank of the favorite.
That last one can be confusing. Essentially, the 1st 3 of these ratings are beneficial to the handicapper if the winners are pushed to the top. (i.e. better ranks mean more money returned.)
However, the public choice thing means we'd rather see the RH horses be HIGHER ranks for public choice.
The scoring column is merely all the ratios multiplied together.
The key point here is that the PubCh factor - that is, rank for lowest odds - has moved from rank of 5th to rank of 2nd in one year.
This is absolutely unprecedented.
What does it mean?
It means that the days of just picking longshots with no regards for how strong the low-odds horses are or aren't and being competitive are pretty much over.
It means that if you are going into a race with an idea that sounds even remotely like, "I just pretend that all the horses under 8/1 are not in the race," you are done before you get started, because the low odds horses are going to pound you.
Permit me to give you some sobering stats:
Do you want to connect on 20/1 horses? They come up 2.69% of the time. That is once every 37 races.
What's that you say? You only play 8-horse fields and above?
Well, that will add a couple of points to your chances. You're now all the way up to 4.36%.
One of those occurs every 23 races. Hope you have the right horse in that race.
Let's be more realistic. (And back to all races again.)
86% of all winners are under 8/1.
79% of all winners are under 6/1.
70% of all winners are under 9/2.
61% of all winners are under 7/2.
What about 8+ horse fields?
81% of all winners are under 8/1.
73% of all winners are under 6/1.
63% of all winners are under 9/2.
53% of all winners are under 7/2.
So, with all this bad news, where is the good news?
That's coming as soon as I can get it written, which could take me a couple of hours.
Meanwhile, what do YOU think a GOOD answer could be?
