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Old 02-08-2018, 04:37 PM   #10
Valuist
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NE Ohio
Posts: 16,487
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teach View Post
Swiss Cheese -

I respect what you're saying. This is no knock on Tom Brady who, in my opinion, played an excellent game, quite possibly his best Superbowl effort. Yet, the two teams were quite evenly matched (the point-spread indicated that). So, if a higher caliber player is unexpectedly benched, it shifts the pendulum to a point where the Eagles become a more viable choice. They are more likely to cover the spread.
I would argue that the point spread DIDN'T state the teams were that evenly matched. A 4 1/2 point favorite on a neutral field is a 7 to 7 1/2 point favorite at home against that opponent.

Very few non-QBs are worth even one point to the spread. Malcolm Butler may be a decent player, but it is doubtful he would have any impact on the spread.
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