Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnGalt1
When I handicap a race with lightly raced three year old horses with one or two races as a two year old and then comes back in the Spring at three, I adjust the two year old races faster. Most two year old horses improve a lot after a winter lay off.
While I would not have adjusted the 2 year old race faster for his 3 year old season, because he had 4 races a s a two year old, I would not make it slower either.
|
Adjustments like that are pretty complicated.
Part of the improvement you see with 2yos that turn 3 and 3yos as the season moves forward is related to physical maturity (the horse is getting bigger and stronger) and part of it is development that comes from getting fitter, more seasoned, and better with more racing.
Occasionally you will see a relatively lightly raced 4yo or 5yo that finally gets over whatever delayed their career. They will often develop and improve their figures as the season moves forward just like younger horses (though maybe not as quickly or extreme). That's telling you that part of it is not just "age". It's experience.
That makes it really tough to put that kind of thing in a formula of some kind. It's hard to isolate how much each factor contributes on average.
Then of course it gets even trickier with some pedigrees and/or trainers that develop horses differently than the average.
Great subject.
