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I'm no expert on that situation, but what's work best for me, is finding the best of the last three races run at today's distance and surface, and beaten by no more than 5 and 3/4 lengths. Those three races can be found anywhere in the chart or could very well be the very last three races run. I use the Taulbot pace software so these lines are automatically picked for me.
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"A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against" - Ray Taulbot
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