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Old 03-31-2023, 12:56 AM   #6
Robert Fischer
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
Arkansas Derby first glance

I've just glanced at the race. Been doing watch-lists elsewhere...

Going to handicap this, eventually.

I have a couple vague opinions, but I'm not married to them. I don't want to be biased and see what I think I see, unless it's true.

REINCARNATE ml 5/2 -
Son of a witch, my middle name is "Merlin", but I don't happen to believe in Reincarnate. The Sham was a sham. Rebel Stakes; favorable race flow.
I have yet to do my due diligence and decide what I can clearly see, and what I can't see, and what is in the twilight gray zone of partial insight. Until then, it's just a first impression.

TWO EAGLES RIVER ml 10/1 - Again I have yet to do my due diligence. At first glance, Two Eagles River has a touch of brilliance. Forget speed figures for a minute, I saw what I saw. May be situation of lower figs or a step up in class of an otherwise good horse. I catch some of these on visual appraisal, but another important model is when it is a supertrainer situation.
Trained by Chris hard-hitter Hartman, a continued improvement including speed figures seems to be on the table.
If I determine that what I think I saw at a glance is actually the truth, then he becomes a valuable key horse.

Not married to either opinion. Don't want to be biased. Put in the work and consider what is clearly true from the clearly unknown, as well as the twilight zone, partially known, gray area.

Good luck to all and enjoy the handicapping and event. I'll post some deeper impressions.

JMK
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