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NP regarding the analysis. I do well on this circuit so was more than happy to try to provide some insight on a big giveaway like that.
I also failed to knock this down. I played needing the 3 & 4 to win or the 4 to come 2nd, so I was good on that end. The only problem was I needed the 1, 5 or 10 to come 3rd (or even 4th had the 4 won). The 1 really stunk, the 5 stunk but managed 5th and the 10 ran into traffic isssues after taking back from the 10 hole(he went off at like 30-1 so I still feel he was a very good gamble). In hindsight, I failed to play the obvious 34/34/spread/1-5-10/spread and 34/34/spread/spread/1-5-10 cover tickets which of course would have brought down the prize. Hindsight is always 20/20 and as mentioned payoff sort of sucked, so not going to beat myself up over this one.
I think the lousy payoff had to do with the fact that the 3 favorites were in the top 5(including the top 2) AND post position. the 8,9,10,11 & 12 were all out of the super high 5. While 11 & 12 are 2nd tier, and may get away closer than say a 7 horse, they also have no chance to leave. Horses that draw inside can always get a piece fo the Super high 5(assuming they have any ability) because of position, so it is a lot easier to toss a horse from the 8/9/10 hole than the 2/3/4 hole. You multiply that bias by thousands of tickets being played and the payoff is certainly going to be skewed lower when the inside posts dominate the high 5 and higher when the outside post positions dominate the high 5. So while the 2 was 42-1 on the board, in the 3/4/5 spot of the high 5 I think he probably played closer to a 15-1 shot.
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