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Originally Posted by thaskalos
I rely on subjective feelings of "confidence" when I bet. It took a long time for me to warm up to the idea, but I now feel quite comfortable swinging for the fences, when I see the proverbial "fastball down the middle". But it's a tricky topic...and I can fully understand those who feel differently than I do. I too was resistant to the idea, for a very long time.
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It is not resistance. As I have mentioned a number of times, I have two very distinct betting strategies, in both volume and size. The bread-and-butter betting is almost entirely automated--high volume, "modest" amounts. For serious wagers, I want to be on-track, close enough to the horses to smell them, watch them from the time they leave the barn until they are ready to be loaded, and make my decisions based on "highly subjective" factors such as appearance, demeanor, attitude, and previous trips.
However, that decision-making process took a LONG time to develop, and I base it on acquired skills and experience in the areas that most would consider "subjective." I hunt with a recurve, not a compound. No sight pins, no range finders, no carefully calculated distance corrections. I see what I want to hit, and everything after that is "purely subconscious." The next time I manage to get back to Japan I look forward to some very intensive immersion in the fine points of kyudo.
