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Originally Posted by Hoofless_Wonder
Why is "rapid turnover" a key to success? I'll agree that outliers need to be pruned from the winners - that makes sense. But can't a player with an ROI of 1.15 who makes 100 bets a year compete with a player with an ROI of 1.02 who makes 1000 bets per year?
As for a confidence factor, I'll agree with you (and Thask) that it's a very advanced skill. A computer would be one way to get around it, while flat wagering is another. I tend to almost fade myself - especially at Hong Kong. The more I like a horse, the less I bet - as they tend to be the ones that run out.....
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It depends on the size of the base population. The fewer the number of matches, the more likely it is that what one sees as a pattern is only a cluster in a random distribution. It is easy to believe one has detected a profitable pattern in something that matched 20 times in a 1000 races, and then go belly up chasing that something that may not occur again in the next 3000 or more races. A pattern with 200-300 or whatever matches in a thousand races can be more easily assumed (not always correctly) to be more representative of a "normal distribution."
It is not the how many bets a year that matters. It is the how often do the matches win that matters, and whether that win rate is the result of anomalies or a normal distribution. "Rapid turnover" refers to the win-to-match ratio rather than the frequency of wagers.
