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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
However, there are some exceptional horses with the reserves to prompt a faster pace and finish just as well. That leads to a higher figure. Some turn out to be duds when challenged.
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I understand you are willing to give Princess Noor another chance (which may never come if she doesn't start in another championship race), but the fact of the matter is in the BC she was a dud when challenged and did not finish well without a visible excuse.
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Even though I agree with you about the details of some of those other horses, it's actually probably easier for a 2yo filly with 3 starts to jump from 79 winning easily to low 90s (which would be closer to PAR for a top 2yo filly) than it is for any horse to make a jump from 103 or 109 to 120 or for a 3yo filly to jump from 98 to 110.
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Certainly 2yos and early 3yos improve leaps and bounds (and 4yos and 5yo for that matter); but I'm not sure if we've seen any such singular improvements in a race like the BC Juvenile races.
Nyquist went from a 79 to an 89, but he had already run an 89 in the Best Pal and really, you might say his regression in the Norfolk was just what he needed as he actually had a tough race putting away archival Swipe which may have "battle hardened" him for the tougher BC. As it stands, they also changed his running style in the BC as the horse settled well off the pace (it's curious that they didn't repeat this in his later starts), so perhaps the change of tactics was the decider. Maybe blinkers off for Princess Noor will be a revelation of sorts.
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As it was she improved from the 76-79 range to 85. That was our answer.
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I think it's probably a mistake to be too literal with her figures.
The running line for Princess Noor's BC doesn't really tell the story. Anyone who watched her from the 1/4 pole home could not think the horse ran a good race no matter what the final figure was. As I said elsewhere, in general I wouldn't trust figures for horses that were not competitive in the stretch. Perhaps her pace figures in the BC are more relevant than the overall figure if you are inclined to give her another chance.
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My odds line was probably a little different than yours just as it would be in practically every other race we discussed. The results of many races give us more answers about these issues. The result of one race never does.
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Certainly the result of one race will at least decrease your probability estimate. It has to be much more rare for a horse to jump up 10 points or more when it already has a failure on its record, at least in the short term.
