Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
This is where you and I have a disconnect regarding this horse.
She did not have a troubled trip and did not get beat in a competitive effort. She was absolutely knocked on her ass. Ergo, she was leading up to the race and in its execution not anywhere near the top of her class.
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I understood the thinking going in and can see the results just like you can.
Where we differ is that I thought the probability that she could jump up was higher than the consensus of the more experienced handicappers I was reading on Twitter and elsewhere, but not as high as making her 1.90 -1.
I was probably more in the middle of the "toss her she's to slow" crowd and the people that were arguing "the figures don't matter you can see how good she is".
I also don't consider the result significant when it comes to those probabilities. It was one event in a lifetime that is sure to contain similar problems where many don't jump up but some do.
