Quote:
Originally Posted by Light
Good point. And many times the horse with a great LP is not really a closer at all nor does he/she have the ability to close.
For "quick handicapping" I frequently look at the "Late Pace Last Race" category in the Ultimate PP's which I get for free on TS. I look for a strong closer for either exacta key horse betting or show betting at a price. I especially look to see if the Top LP horse has a significant point separation from the rest of the pack.
But many times the top closer listed is actually a speedster that went w-w and has never passed a horse in its life. Hence another reason besides yours stated above as to why the horse earned such a high LP figure. So you have to verify whether a high late pace figure horse is really a late pace type of horse by looking at its running style and how it earned that LP figure. Of course after all that, there is no guarantee that the horse will not bounce or that the jockey will not give him a bonehead ride.
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And the same thing happens with horses that have impressive half-mile ratings. Sometimes they aren't speed horses at all...but they have run in middle position against a fast pace. Their lofty half-mile ratings may indicate pace-setting potential...but these horses don't seem to know that.
