Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey
I glance at the pace figs, but have seen so many anomalous numbers that I decline to use them seriously.
Their numbers for long routes are just plain ridiculous
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You need to really filter out the noise to make them at all useful.
I draw a line through any pacelione that is not representative of today's race, ie, no sprint or turf in a dirt route, that kind of thing. A big part of it looking at the race shapes and not using any very fast or very slow shape.
Say you narrow the lines for a horse down to three - theses are his last three good races.
E2 / LP Total
98/70 - 168 +2
80/89 - 169 -14
95/72 - 167 -1
If you are using a mechanical method, ie, best of last three, you might be saying the horse is a great late runner with that 89 LP. But the slow 14 pace is the reason why - it used no energy early on. That is a line you want to get rid of.
The total of E2+LP for each line is about the same, so use one of the other two line to get a better idea of how this horse fits in today.
The way they set up their numbers, it makes it hard to use them.
