Quote:
Originally Posted by aaron
I bet a Chad FTS that was 5 or 6-1 in a race I hated the favorites. He won pretty easy. A lot of Stake Races Chads horses go off as overlays because the public gets fixated on one of them and doesn't seem to realize his 2nd and 3rd horse might be okay.I understand you'll get beat by a lot of his favorites, but there is value in races his horses are entered.
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It's very strange that that horse went off at 5:1. A few people had told me his recent works were very good. While I actually watched the race with Chad, I had never asked him about the horse ( I almost never do ), but I said I had heard the horse worked well and was surprised he was 5:1. He agreed but given how poorly his dirt first time starters had done this year ( I think Jack Christopher may have been the only one that won ) maybe that was scaring people off.
As it turned out, that horse is good. I guess if he had lost we would have said "they knew."
As far as the "Chad factor"....I don't get it. You handicap a race and make decisions. If you think his horses are overbet, you try to take advantage of that, and if you're right it will work in your favor. Isn't that, at least in theory, what we do in any race we handicap and decide to bet?
