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Old 03-03-2011, 02:48 PM   #1
jeebus1083
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 875
Identifying Early leaders

After some deep thinking, observation, and soul-searching, I have to agree with Dave Schwartz about "EP" (pace call time) as an irrelevant factor (ripped from a previous thread). Let me first say this: I did not purchase "NewPace", so I'm not passing on any ideas or research of Dave's, nor is this an attempt to solicit some of those ideas in a public forum setting. Instead, I'm agreeing with Dave based on my past and present handicapping experiences, and explaining why. Agree or disagree if you wish. If you have your own personal ideas to expound upon, fire away. If you can piggy-back on my statements, also good.

For starters, I find EP times are very race-sensitive. Let's looks at two runners: Horse A has an EP of 58.00 fps, and Horse B is 56.66 fps, and are matched up based on those lines. The seemingly correct assumption is that Horse A has a clear advantage on Horse B. Game over. Or is it?

A wise man once told me: "every race is a unique event - the race is run once, only once, and never repeated again." Just like speed handicappers try and figure out how a horse earned a particular figure, pace handicappers have to do the same. Even though Horse A's 58.00 EP looks superior, a 58.00 on a clear lead might not paint an accurate picture of the horse's abilities under pressure. Furthermore, if Horse A's running style is to sit a few lengths behind the lead, and Horse B's mojo is the front, matching the 58.00 with the 56.66 will ultimately cause frustration. In all likelihood, if Horse B runs to the front and repeats the 56.66, and Horse A assumes his normal stalking position, Horse A naturally has to run a slower EP than Horse B, regardless of previous EPs. Sometimes, a horse happens to be "faster by default", and run style will be rendered irrelevant, but more often than not, taking the 58.00 over the 56.66 is an incorrect majority position.

EP is an irrelevant predictor for who will go to the front, because in most cases, the race is either 1/2 or 2/3rds complete. The race for the early lead will and forever always, start right out of the gate. Take this example of horse's early sprint lines - without using times:

Horse A: PP2 - Start: 5, 1/4 Pos: 1
Horse B: PP2 - Start: 1, 1/4 Pos: 1
Horse C: PP8 - Start: 1, 1/4 Pos: 1

Using Horse A's line, is he really a true "E" horse? Let's say that we watched the race replay. He broke slower than several of the outside horses, and then preceeded to rush forward. For a horse to rush up usually means an earlier expediture of energy, as they are suddenly trying to "catch up" with those who outbroke him. If I gave someone a head start in a running sprint, I would have to run much harder to catch up, which would empty the tank sooner, with little in reserve. I'm changing my pace to assume my rightful position, and I'm not comfortable. This is why I would favor Horse B if I matched these lines up. He got the jump over the slower starter. He can run "his race" without having to jump out of his comfort zone. Since he's inside, he only had to outbreak the rail runner to get that lead. Horse C has to outbreak a possible 7 other runners, and get inside to avoid losing ground, which means he'll usually have to use more energy. I'm not saying that outside post front-runners are bad bets (I don't have the stats or ROI to back up such a claim, so I won't go there - many outside runners can outbreak a field with no problem and are still comfortable), but the further away from the inside that one is, the harder one usually has to work.

Having dragged on, I ask myself these questions when trying to put a horse or horses on the lead:

Were they advantaged/disadvantaged by post position in previous races?
Will a change in karma (jockey/trainer/work pattern/post) change the habit?
Do other horses usually get the initial jump or is this horse on the engine from the gate?
Has the front-running style succeeded in similar track conditions?
Who tends to run faster first fractions on the lead?

This is the trickiest part, because 22.2 at one track might be 23.0 elsewhere, and 22.2 on a fast surface might equal 23.0 in a bog. Having said that, I think it's possible to use the raw fraction, but one has to really know how each individual track plays (par times help a lot, but so does regular play of several circuits). Times can also be run-up dependent, so that throws another wrinkle.

Speed Points do a good job, but going deeper IMO enhances those numbers, and exposes possible flaws that the points do not address.

Now, it's everyone's turn. Fire away.
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