Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
I would be highly entertained by a program which you could enter inputs for things like hit%(or even a range) and odds, and bankroll size, and then receive a report for a number of things such as: - Kelly Criterion
- risk of ruin (a probability, perhaps given with times, eg 100trials, 1000trials, 10000trials)
- worst-case probable scenario (fastest way to ruin within probability limits)
- best-case probable scenario
- a 'dice roll' button to simulate either 1 race or an entered number of races at once
- pretty colors
I don't know if you guys ever played 'Oregon Trail' in school? |
Assumptions (especially unstated assumptions) can be misleading. There are few areas in which this is more evident than in "race outcome prediction."
