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Old 12-08-2016, 10:25 PM   #33
Robert Fischer
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
randomness exists in everything probabilistic (excuse me tonight, my brain's battery is on 'safe mode') , I'm assuming as long as that probability is <1 or <100%.


this includes horse racing

also includes simplified examples of horse racing using known, controlled probabilities

A coin flip, simulated in my head
I'll bet on 'HEADS'. 50% win chance.
1,000 coin flips and I can see as many as 10 consecutive tails loss outcomes.

A true 2/1 favorite. 33% , 1,000 races = as many as 17 consecutive losses...

those are just the simple examples i'm capable of describing.
I'm sure a better mathematician could demonstrate a simulation with a worst-probable outcome scenario.


So yes, randomness exists.

We can fight randomness with high percentage wagers, and lower percent of bankroll wagers

will not completely eliminate, but we can produce a 'manageable' environment with an very low probability of ruin due to randomness.

^all that stuff is talking about known probabilities and by extension, players capable of knowing their probability range estimates
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